Kevin Warsh, the newly installed Federal Reserve Chairman, has inherited a problem not of his making. The Orange Menace's war with Iran was meant to deflect from more mundane issues, such as those contained in a certain set of DOJ files. Unfortunately for Mr. Trump, resulting higher oil prices quickly fed into inflation expectations, threatening the global economy and distorting the fixed-income markets. Only one week into his new role, and he's dropped his new Fed boss direc

Come on in, the water's fine. But can anybody tell when it's time to get out? It has been said that valuation is a lousy timing tool in the stock market. But now that the global bond bears are in the ascendancy, I'm paying more attention to valuation. It's not like anybody has been arguing that stocks are cheap over the last couple of years; they haven't been cheap since the 'Covid-19' bottom in 2020! The chart below is evidence of that. Admittedly, the rally since the 'Liber

DJT has some 'splaining to do. He got us into this mess, so he'd better hurry up and get us out of it. The market has been merrily heading toward new highs until today. I guess nobody believes he won't capitulate at some point, but when? Welcome to the orange hair-trigger world. Recent market behaviour has given us a lesson in humility. The linkage between the front page and the business pages seems irreparably broken. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the S&P 500's elevated level