How much can the stock market inflate the AI beach ball? Yes, that image was generated by an AI agent provided by Google, the company with the highest free cash flow in the S&P 500. Despite that, they announced their intention to raise an additional $80B in capital to fund next year's AI infrastructure spending. With the arms race for AI dominance a feature, not a bug, for the economy as a whole. But just as any bug will, this feature will eventually bite. U.S. capital spen

Kevin Warsh, the newly installed Federal Reserve Chairman, has inherited a problem not of his making. The Orange Menace's war with Iran was meant to deflect from more mundane issues, such as those contained in a certain set of DOJ files. Unfortunately for Mr. Trump, resulting higher oil prices quickly fed into inflation expectations, threatening the global economy and distorting the fixed-income markets. Only one week into his new role, and he's dropped his new Fed boss direc

Come on in, the water's fine. But can anybody tell when it's time to get out? It has been said that valuation is a lousy timing tool in the stock market. But now that the global bond bears are in the ascendancy, I'm paying more attention to valuation. It's not like anybody has been arguing that stocks are cheap over the last couple of years; they haven't been cheap since the 'Covid-19' bottom in 2020! The chart below is evidence of that. Admittedly, the rally since the 'Liber